Economic updates

Australia's homeownership rate hasn't moved much in a decade. But the way people get there and what it costs them has changed significantly.

Victoria's relative affordability hasn't been created by policy - it's been built through sustained supply. But policy settings that discourage investors don't create affordability, they redistribute where housing pressure lands.

Different industries face different productivity challenges, requiring different solutions. Construction's slow productivity growth reflects factors that robots and automation can't directly address - yet technology still has a role to play.

When housing markets cool, the assumption is affordability improves. But affordability depends on factors beyond price - it's determined by what new housing actually costs to deliver and how much supply that enables or constrains.

What the RBA's decision in March means for you if you're looking to buy or sell.

Monthly price movements and annual growth rates tell different stories during transitions. A market can show weakness in recent months while annual gains remain strong, reflecting when the slowdown actually began versus where it is now.

High-frequency data captures economic behaviour as it happens, before official releases arrive. During periods of rapid change, these real-time signals often reveal shifts in sentiment and spending that traditional data hasn't yet recorded.

The property market's current challenge isn't any single variable but the absence of a clear narrative. With rate expectations fluid, geopolitical tensions unresolved and fiscal policy pending, buyers and sellers lack the visibility needed to act.

Geopolitical conflicts reshape global energy markets unevenly across economies. Australia exports energy but imports fuel, creating a split outcome where resource exporters gain while households and construction face mounting pressure.

The Reserve Bank raised rates despite global uncertainty, acting to contain rising inflation expectations driven by energy prices. The decision signals the Bank remains determined to return inflation to target before it becomes entrenched.

Sydney's housing market has historically been led by expensive homes, but the current cycle is different. Cheaper homes are now outperforming premium properties, reflecting where capital is flowing and who is driving demand.

Rental growth slowdown suggests the surge phase is easing, but that doesn't mean pressure is easing everywhere. The distribution of rental growth across cities and suburbs is becoming more important than the national trend alone reveals.