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Luxury Homes magazine

If you were speaking about luxury houses five years ago, you wouldn’t even consider markets outside of Sydney and Melbourne.

Instead, when the pandemic accelerated trends of lifestyle migration and people were given permission to look elsewhere for housing, luxury buyers proved themselves to be the most flexible and flocked away to where luxury was still sold at a discount. As a result, luxury growth has largely overlooked Sydney and Melbourne.

Luxury prices in the two major cities spiked briefly in 2021 as the initial COVID boom lifted all markets, only for both to lose half their gains the following year as interest rates surged and lifestyle migration gained popularity. From early 2023 onwards, the cities have struggled to return to this COVID peak, with the last 12 months proving to be their most productive. Sydney grew six per cent between 2024 and 2025 after growing just two per cent between 2023 and 2024 to finally reach a new peak luxury price of $4.5 million. Melbourne, on the other hand, is yet to reach its peak. Luxury house prices in the Victorian capital grew five per cent between 2024 and 2025 after declining one per cent between 2023 and 2024 to end 2025 at $2.6 million.

All in all, Sydney grew 35 per cent in the last five years while Melbourne grew just 17 per cent, modest compared to Brisbane (+77 per cent), Perth (+76 per cent), Adelaide (+73 per cent), Gold Coast (+72 per cent), and Sunshine Coast (+68 per cent). This underperformance allowed the Sunshine Coast ($2.76M) and Gold Coast ($2.86M) to overtake Melbourne ($2.62M) as the second and third most expensive luxury markets. Meanwhile, Brisbane ($2.32M) and Perth ($2.30M) are now just 12 per cent cheaper than Melbourne, compared to 43 per cent cheaper in 2020.


It’s easy to assume the new normal is a decentralised luxury market, but if the last 12 months signal what's to come, luxury buyers may just be beginning to rediscover the value of Sydney’s prestige waterfront streets and Melbourne’s leafy inner suburbs.

The price discounts that drove buyers away from Sydney and into cheaper luxury enclaves of South East Queensland are not as significant anymore. In 2020, Sydney was twice as expensive as the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast, now just 1.5 times more expensive. Against Brisbane and Perth, the premium has narrowed from 2.5 times to 1.9 times. In other words: Sydney’s premium looks more justified than overpriced.

The case in Melbourne is more complex as broader economic challenges in the wake of its extended lockdowns, which cumulatively was the longest in the world, damaged its appeal to the exact buyers who could afford to look elsewhere. Yet paradoxically, it's because of Melbourne's weakness that it might be the better luxury bet for 2026. At only 17 per cent growth over five years, it significantly underperformed relative to its fundamentals as Australia's second-largest city.

If the rate-cut cycle delivers and confidence returns, the luxury buyers who fled Sydney and Melbourne may find themselves returning to markets that now offer better relative value than they've seen in years.


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