A younger generation is reshaping Geraldton

Geraldton has experienced one of the strongest property market turnarounds in regional Australia. In 2019, the median house price was around $280,000 and the median unit price was less than $200,000. Today, houses are around $660,000 and units $420,000. Rents have moved in much the same direction, with houses now renting for around $575 a week and units for $420. This followed a decade in which prices had been falling or barely moving. The timing of the turnaround is important: Geraldton’s housing market started to recover at almost exactly the same time as its population stopped shrinking.

Greater Geraldton, located around 420 kilometres north of Perth on Western Australia’s Mid West coast, had been losing people for much of the previous decade. Between 2014 and 2019, its population fell by almost 2,800 people, or 6.8 per cent. More importantly, it was losing the groups that generate much of a city’s housing demand. The number of children aged under 15 fell by 957, the number of people aged 25 to 34 declined by 866 and those aged 35 to 44 fell by another 813. In just five years, Geraldton lost almost 1,700 people aged 25 to 44. At the same time, its retirement-age population was continuing to increase.

COVID helped trigger the change, but it coincided with a broader improvement in Geraldton’s economy. Resources activity strengthened, including iron ore, mineral sands and metal concentrates, while strong agricultural exports and growing activity through Geraldton Port supported the wider economy. Major investment followed, including the expansion of the port and, more recently, health and critical-minerals projects. COVID made regional living more attractive, but stronger economic opportunities gave working-age residents more reason to stay.

The demographic reversal since 2019 has been significant. Between 2019 and 2024, Greater Geraldton added just over 4,000 people, an increase of 10.5 per cent and more than reversing the decline of the previous five years. Importantly, the age groups that had been falling most sharply began growing again. The number of 25 to 34 year olds increased by 555, those aged 35 to 44 rose by 609 and children under 15 increased by 354. The contrast is particularly stark for people aged 25 to 44: Geraldton lost almost 1,700 people in this age group between 2014 and 2019, then gained more than 1,100 over the following five years.